Leader’s death leaves Nigeria’s future uncertain

(c) The Advocacy Project

The death last week of Nigerian President Umaru Yar’Adua has raised the spectre of increased instability in the oil-rich West African state, following months of ethnic and religious violence in the north of the country and the resumption of hostilities by the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) earlier in the year.

Yar’Adua, who died in the presidential villa on Wednesday May 5, had returned to Nigeria in February after receiving three months of treatment in a Saudi Arabian medical facility.  Little detail of the former president’s condition was released into the public sphere, paving the way for a constitutional crisis in which Vice-President Goodluck Jonathan was granted emergency powers until Yar’Adua’s health improved. 

Under the Nigerian constitution the legislature is directed to impeach the serving president in the event of ill-health impeding a formal transfer of power to the serving deputy.  In place of this legal obligation, an apparent agreement was hastily reached and implemented by the senate; effectively rendering the initial transfer of power unconstitutional and leaving both Nigeria’s political elite and Goodluck Jonathan open to accusations of illegitimacy and back-room dealing. 

Since assuming power in February, Jonathan has been quick to fill the political vacuum left by his predecessor by appointing a new cabinet and presenting a strong agenda based on electoral reform and greater security in the Niger Delta.  Yet his intentions for the upcoming 2011 election remain unclear.  The ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP), the dominant force in Nigerian politics since the advent of democratic rule in 1999, has traditionally presented presidential candidates from the Muslim north and Christian south on a rotational basis.  As Umaru Yar’Adua did not complete two presidential terms in government, there is a strong expectation from the north that Goodluck Jonathan, as a Christian southerner, will select as his vice-president a suitable Muslim candidate. 

Reports from Abuja indicate a growing pressure on Jonathan to name his deputy, who will likely become the PDP’s contender for president in 2011.  While an announcement is expected imminently, there is rising unease at the prospect of the newly appointed president reneging on the long-standing agreement designed to bridge the north-south divide.  Constitutionally, the president has no obligation to choose candidates on either an ethno-national or regional basis, nor is there a deadline in which to select the vice-president. 

In the present climate it is difficult to assess Goodluck Jonathan’s intentions for the 2011 elections, including his own ambitions for the presidency.  Should he undermine the system of power sharing tacitly adopted by the PDP, the implications for the Nigerian state could be severe.  Incidents of violent conflict which have occurred, at least on a nominal basis, between Christians and Muslims have increased this year, with hundreds of reported deaths in the central city of Jos.  The authorities have worked hard to eliminate the bloodshed by sending additional security forces to the area, although tensions remain high.  A fractious political environment developing at the central level, including the possibility of a split within the PDP, would likely devastate already frayed community relations along the north-south divide. 

Moreover, Jonathan’s abilities to deal with the demands of the MEND are as yet untested.  His predecessor was widely praised for an amnesty offered to the militant group along with subsequent negotiations designed to reintegrate combatants and maintain constructive dialogue with the political leadership.  In a statement issued by MEND commanders on Sunday, the president was warned that action would be required within weeks to deal with the group’s objectives for resource control, before a fresh wave of violence would be unleashed in the Delta region. 

Despite the ominous possibility of violence resulting from a shift in the political dynamic, the likely effects of such a change will be felt with greater resonance within the organs of state governance.  A divided and leaderless PDP may yet prove more devastating than either problem manifested in the physical and national borderlands of the country.  Much will depend on Jonathan’s appointment of the next vice-president and the capacity of Nigeria’s behind-the-scenes political manoeuvring to determine a favourable outcome in the build up to next year’s election.