And we’re off…the great election battle 2010

(c)Filippo Venturi

The worst kept secret in politics has been confirmed. Gordon Brown finally went to the Queen today to seek the dissolution of Parliament. From now until May 6, we will have 30 days and 30 nights of non-stop campaigning. Which will be a lot like the last week, with the election campaign having effectively started months ago.

As we begin, the Conservatives find themselves ten points ahead, according to mainstream pollsters, and on course for a majority. Add in their performance in marginal seats, which is generally better than reported in the major monthly polls, and the Tories start with a massive advantage.

With the discussions of a hung Parliament having dominated for much of the last month, the big question will be whether the Conservatives can cling on and claim a majority in the House of Commons. Certainly, the polling figures indicate that it is more likely that they would lose it, than Labour claw back from the brink to record an unlikely win.

Labour’s polling scores according to Populus, one of the most reliable pollsters, have fluctuated from 28 to 30 and back to 29 in the last few months, during which it was said they were catching up. The reality of the most recent bounce was that it was more to do with a Tory fall, as nationalist right wing parties took points from their lead.  Given that it would be an astonishing feat for any of these far right parties to gain more than one or two seats in the next Parliament, it doesn’t quite add up to the spectre of a hung parliament that is now starting to dissipate. Labour have barely climbed in the polls for months now. Similarly, the Liberal Democrats are perennially a 20% party.

So how likely is it for this to change in the next couple of months? One of the key factors of an election victory is money. Labour have already spent half of their £8 million election budget, which puts them at a huge disadvantage. The Conservatives are likely to be able to call on £10 million worth of funds to fight this election. Significantly, despite the reported influence of Lord Ashcroft’s donations, only about 5% of Conservative spending in key marginals actually comes from the non-domiciled peer, which outlines just how much capital they have behind the campaign.

Meanwhile, so broke are Labour that they had to run a competition to find their recent poster depicting David Cameron as Gene Hunt. Such spending is likely to increase the Conservative lead further, with exposure playing such a key role in the electoral chances of those seeking power.

Further to the spending disadvantage, Labour start from a position of disunity and simmering civil war. Lord Mandelson and Ed Balls’ private mutual loathing threatens to spill over. Last week’s victory for the Conservatives over NI came despite Mandelson and Alistair Darling having argued months ago against increasing NI, and in favour of putting up VAT instead. Ed Balls, backed by Gordon Brown, forced through the NI increase, as VAT tends to impact on the poorest, and having seen that turn into a huge tactical own goal, Mandelson’s ire will be at the fore, whilst Darling with every week earns more credit for having the temerity to stand up to Brown and to try and be straight with the public about the economy.

By contrast, the Conservatives are a party of serene unity. David Cameron is the face of the campaign, the one who sells well, whilst George Osborne quietly works away at the election strategy in the background, with the support of heavyweights in Oliver Letwin, Kenneth Clarke and William Hague.

Current polling figures put the Tories 10 points ahead. All but ICM point to a majority at the moment, with the Guardian breaking with this to report a closing of the gap. However, given that the Guardian stand to lose a major source of revenue from online public sector job adverts if the Tories come to power, it wouldn’t be a stretch to raise an eyebrow of cynicism at the paper. So it all points to a Tory victory, right? Well, probably, but not definitely.

If ever an election did not conform to the usual rules, it is this one, with televised debates set to add an intriguing twist. It is tempting to draw parallels with those in the US which can so often be crucial to voting patterns. However, this country is very different from the US, and it would be an error to assume a similar phenomenon here.

Britain loves an underdog with fighting spirit almost as much as a stylish skillful performer, and so to assume Dave will defeat Brown on this score would be presumptuous. Indeed, it may be that the public, upon seeing a well spoken Etonian, are turned off the Tory leader. But it would be essential for Labour to let the Tory’s background speak for itself if they wish to score any points here.

That said, the Prime Minister’s way with words (or lack of) may lead to him being comprehensively outmaneuvered by the sharp Old Etonian. With Nick Clegg there to twist the knife, Labour face an uphill battle to gain much from these debates. It’s likely the Liberal Democrats will gain most. It is free publicity for a party who struggle to attract donors and lack the funds to compete. As the recent Chancellor’s debate showed though, the Liberal Democrats will generally be given a free ride, and whilst they may profit from this, the reality is that they will still have about as much chance of winning the election as Chelsea have to win the European Champions League this season (for the less sporty amongst you, Chelsea have been knocked out already).

And then there is another interesting take on the contest. For Gordon Brown, this will be unchartered territory of sorts. Unlike his rivals, he has not faced an election to be the leader of his party, let alone to be Prime Minister. This will place him at a unique disadvantage as he will be unaccustomed to the demands of securing a popular vote. And as many concerned with Labour fear, from activists to cabinet ministers, Gordon Brown’s poor communication skills make him an electoral liability.

Finally, the other sub plot that will determine the outcome of this election will be the economics question. Days before the election growth figures for the previous quarter are expected. These are likely to be pivotal. If good or better than expected, Labour may just gain enough votes to see off a Tory majority. And ultimately, self interest may count against the Conservatives.

Voters ask themselves the key question of ‘who will be better for me?’ If the country is perceived to be coming out of a recession, and jobs are picking up, then even Conservative voters may question whether or not they want to put their own livelihoods at risk by voting for the party.

The various complexities of the month ahead show that this is going to be a more unpredictable election than usual. Small details will go a long way – a slip of the tongue, a tenth of a percentage in growth – these are the ingredients which will shape the election ahead. The Conservatives will certainly go into the battle as convincing favourites, but in a race like this, it would be naive to make sweeping statements about who will walk into Number 10 on May 7^th. The only thing you can really be sure of is that it won’t be Nick Clegg.