Obama must lead the Democrats to the centre…or they risk a massacre in November

(c) Mark Sardella

‘Ouch’ is really the only way to describe the Senate special election result in Massachusetts. There is no way to spin this as anything other than a disaster for the Democrats.

The seat had been in Democrat hands since 1952; in 2006 the late Senator Edward Kennedy won it with 69% of the vote. He actually won every single district within the state, polling at least 62% in them all. Up until last night, it was an extremely safe seat for the Democrats.

Martha Coakley, the Democrat candidate, should have won without any difficulty. Instead she was defeated by Scott Brown, the Republican candidate who was all but unknown just a few weeks ago. The Republicans now have 41 seats in the Senate, allowing them to filibuster key Democrat policies and stall the progress of the majority party’s agenda.

While this is undoubtedly a major setback for the Democrats’ healthcare policy – which is opposed by both the Republicans and a majority of American voters – it also has far wider implications.

A previous post on this site has discussed how Obama’s agenda has alienated Independent voters. It is probably better, however, to talk about ‘the Democrats’ rather than just President Obama. Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid – Democrat leaders in the House of Representatives and Senate respectively – have had enormous influence on shaping their party’s policies over the last year. Combined with Obama’s hands-off approach to domestic policy-making and his instinctive support for their liberal stance, this has led the Democrats to pursue policies that are not supported by the American people.

Yesterday’s special election result is a consequence of this. Only one year ago the Republicans were fragmented, demoralised and unpopular after eight years of Bush and a weak campaign by McCain. Independent voters flocked to the Democrats and ensured that they won both the White House and large majorities in Congress. Now, though, Independents are swinging back to the Republicans to register their discontent with the Democrats’ agenda.

If the Democrats continue with their current (unpopular) policies, it is likely that they will suffer heavy defeats in November. All 435 members of the House of Representatives are up for election, as are 37 Senators. If the swing against the Democrats is similar to yesterday’s, they could be walking into an electoral massacre.

In order to retain control of Congress, the Democrats need to move towards the centre. However, as argued on RealClearPolitics, Congress is ill-suited to this task. It is not inherently a national body; it is a forum where district and state representatives are sent to fight their constituents’ corners. Left to Congress, nothing will change: Democrats from liberal states will keep supporting liberal policies.

If the Democrats are to move to the centre and have any chance of retaining Congress in November, therefore, it is President Obama who must lead them there. He must abandon his laissez-faire approach to domestic policy creation and use his position in the White House to advocate moderate, bipartisan solutions to America’s problems (and ideally ones that do not raise taxes or national debt).

Of course, the damage may already have been done. But this is unlikely; the Republicans have gained support because they are vocally opposed to the Democrats’ agenda, not because they have developed a compelling alternative. In November many voters may prefer to support a party with a clear programme, rather than one that just says ‘no’. However, if the Republicans do develop a positive agenda – and the Democrats continue with their unpopular one – it is hard to see Congress remaining in Democrat hands.

This special election result should be a wake-up call for the White House. Exactly one year into his presidency, Obama’s approval ratings have dropped and his party has suffered a massive defeat. If they continue to govern as they have, the Democrats face a potentially crippling defeat in the autumn.

However, if Obama recognises that he is going against public opinion and turns his party towards the centre, he may yet be able to avoid a massacre. The next few months will be crucial, both for his presidency and America’s political trajectory.