May you live in interesting times: a pessimist’s predictions for the next ten years.

Those of you who know me will know that I’m not normally prone to serious pessimism. In fact I’m much more in the school of “every thing is going to be fine… what? I can’t hear you… la la la la!” However, as I look to the… erm tens? teens? tennies? I can’t help but be filled with a sense of foreboding that a lot of the mistakes we made in the noughties are still to catch up with us.

However, as it is abundantly clear that not only am I not gifted with the power of foresight, I have instead chosen to give a warning. This article will provide a kind of worst-case scenario for the next ten years, what could happen if all the things that are going wrong are allowed to play out in full.

For simplicity I have broken my prediction down into four sections matching those covered by other authors in their reviews of the noughties.

Global Events:

The obvious and almost unavoidable conflict is that Israel will invade Iran at some stage in the next few years. Driven by fear of Iran developing nuclear weapons Israel will launch a pre-emptive strike against Iranian military facilities. Iran will retaliate using ground troops and Israel will be forced to defend itself, possibly by using nuclear weapons.

The war will be condemned by the international community but they will do nothing to halt the fighting. Iran will most likely collapse into revolution but any attempts to secure peace in the Middle East will be shattered for many years to come.

Even without the Israeli / Iranian conflict, peace in the Middle East will remain elusive anyway as Israel will continue to refuse to pull back from its settlements on Palestinian land.

Meanwhile, the situation in Afghanistan will thankfully begin to improve. However, this progress will be undermined by a ‘power sharing agreement’ that will restore the Taliban in all but name as long as they promise to no-longer harbor terrorists. NATO can claim victory as it rapidly withdraws leaving millions of Afghanis to be abused by the same people we were supposed to be saving them from.

NATO’s escape from the quagmire of Afghanistan won’t come a moment too soon as its old nemesis flexes its muscles even further. Empowered by the inactivity of either the EU or US despite major human rights abuses in the noughties, Russia will dispense with its time consuming charade of being a democracy and revert to an authoritarian dictatorship run by Putin.

Taking example from China, which will become the world’s biggest economy, Russia will combine strict social rules with free market ideals to re-energize its economy. The growing strength of the two nations will challenge liberal democracy as the models for human progress.

Issues:

The twenty tens will be the decade when the debate over climate change will finally be settled as millions are made homeless by more and more extreme weather patterns. Whilst it will be these weather events that will finally focus attention they will distract from an increasing pattern of crop failures in the developing world that will lead to mass starvation in the poorest nations.

As the developing world becomes increasingly uninhabitable, migration on a scale not even seen in the nightmares of Daily Mail readers will threaten to overwhelm the richer and more temperate nations. The developed nations will attempt to restrict immigration with absolutely no effect as desperate migrants go to ever further lengths to evade border controls. This cultural overpowering will lead to a rise in the far right across the developed world and will in turn provoke acts of terrorism from both sides as they become engaged in what they see as a desperate battle for survival.

The teens will also be the decade when the driving force behind industrial capitalism all but dries up. Whilst oil will by no means run out, a series of supply side shocks will increase its price to the point where it is no longer viable as an everyday fuel and must be reserved for the manufacture of plastics and medicines.

The increase in oil prices will not only lead to a massive jump in inflation around the world but average people will become significantly poorer as average families are suddenly no longer able to afford to have two cars or go on holiday. This scarcity will finally make renewable energy a viable option, however the lack in previous investment means it will take beyond the end of the teens to restore energy supplies to their previous levels.

Britain:

Britain will suffer one of the worst decades in its history as it is forced to pay back the massive government debt it has built up. Whilst the Conservatives will win the 2010 election, they will win it on a small majority and will be forced to court every single backbencher for every single vote causing the political system to all but grind to a halt.

This reliance on the more eccentric backbenchers will force Cameron rightwards and will eventually lead to a promise for a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union. The vote will be hijacked by eurosceptics presenting the EU as a new superstate and Britain will withdraw causing major damage to its economy and international credibility.

Cuts in university funding will lead to an increase in tuition fees, resulting in universities becoming far more elitist. As students are forced to borrow more they will only do courses which lead to employment ending the luxury of knowledge for knowledge’s sake. Meanwhile, the culling of nearly half a million civil servants will flood the labour market with white collar workers ensuring young people have no chance of finding a meaningful job. The phrase ‘lost generation’ really starts to hit home as recent graduates are forced to emigrate to find jobs.

Culture:

The cultural democratisation of the last decade will reverse.

Online newspapers, TV and audio will start charging for content but only those that produce original, high value content will make it work. The rest will be forced to cut costs further, reducing quality even more. The internet will separate between a high value information rich resource for those that can afford it and a load of reheated, repackaged comment for the rest.

The only institution able to fight against this, the BBC, will be chopped off at the knees by the Conservatives as the price for Murdoch’s support. The BBC will be forced to scale back to high-end documentaries and period dramas which will cause many to refuse to pay their license fees.

The rise in the price of oil will undermine the business model of the cheap fashion high street stores as they stop being able to import from China. This will mean that those who want to keep following trends will have to dedicate a lot more money to it. Fashion will regain its status as something for the rich to do and everyone else to watch.

Conclusion

The teens is going to be a rough decade. A lot of the luxuries we’ve enjoyed and progress we’ve made during the last thirty years is going to start to unravel and we will be ill prepared to deal with it. The good news is that this is just an example of what could happen, it’s still possible to change the course of events. If we work together a lot of the negatives can be avoided and teens could come to be remembered as the decade when the human race finally grew up.

The question is: are you ready to make that difference?