Afghanistan and the role of India

(c) Army.mil

Few doubt the strategic importance of securing meaningful Pakistani support for the West’s campaign in Afghanistan. Widespread instability, Pakistan’s role in the opium trade and Islamabad’s ambivalent relationship to the Taliban (despite an ostensible commitment to US counterterrorism effort) are well- known causes for concern. India seems to have kept a much lower profile however and India’s Afghanistan policies appear to have come under less scrutiny, despite the fact that India and Pakistan are fighting a proxy war on Afghan soil. India must be taken into account in debate about Afghanistan.

Pakistan and India have fought for influence in Afghanistan for years; both countries want Afghanistan as a partisan, or at least neutral, entity in the event of an Indian-Pakistani war. Since 2001, in addition to restoring diplomatic relations with Kabul, India has spent over $1billion on development projects in Afghanistan. These include, according to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), road building, a dam project and a new parliament building. India has also trained Afghan police, diplomats and civil servants and has provided support in many areas of public infrastructure such as health and education. Pakistan is strongly suspicious of these policies, fearing the strategic encirclement that could ensue in the event of an alliance between Kabul and New Delhi.

It is widely believed that Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) assists the Taliban. Earlier this year Washington reiterated its concerns about continued ISI support for the Taliban, and Indian and Afghan officials have implied ISI involvement in recent attacks against Indian personnel and assets in Afghanistan. Islamabad has denied these allegations but it may be that Pakistan sees covert support of the Taliban as an effective way to undermine Indian efforts in Afghanistan. Over the years, Pakistan has spent vast amounts on trying to maintain a military rivalry with India, despite the other’s greater size and much bigger GDP. The result has been that the military is really Pakistan’s only viable institution, while everything else including education and utilities, has fallen by the wayside. Weak institutions and failed infrastructure have exacerbated dire endemic poverty and misery in Pakistan, leaving vast swathes of her population (37% of which are under 15) unemployed and disillusioned. In overcrowded cities like Karachi, which frequently has no electricity or clean water, poverty and sectarian violence thrives. Recruiters for extremist jihadi groups prey easily on the disenfranchised.

Tensions between Islamabad and Washington have risen recently over American claims that Pakistan is refusing to attack the Taliban’s ‘Quetta Shura’ , the council of former Afghan leader Mullah Omar. The US fears that the Shura is plotting attacks on Nato forces in Afghanistan and has warned that Pakistani apathy regarding this issue will precipitate further unmanned drone attacks such as those used in Waziristan. Pakistan in turn has cautioned that it will not tolerate this , arguing that drone attacks on suspected Taliban strongholds are a violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty. Drones are hugely unpopular in Pakistan, a recent Al Jazeera poll found that 67% of Pakistanis oppose them. When asked what they considered to be the greatest threat to their country, 59% of Pakistanis named the US while 11% named the Taliban. An increase in drone attacks can only exacerbate anti-US sentiments. According to the CFR, doubts have been expressed about the long-term effectiveness of unmanned drones in counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism efforts and such methods will do little to mitigate the myriad other problems that poverty and instability wreak in Pakistan. Policy makers are arguing that Washington should place its Pakistani policies within an Indian-orientated framework and focus on improving the image of America in Pakistan. Future policy should aim to reduce Pakistani suspicion of India and encourage Afghanistan to pursue neutral and strong relations with both India and Pakistan.