The Return of Blair?

(c) World Economic Forum

With the Irish being granted their concessions and explicit guarantees of neutrality, tax and abortion law and Barros´s job as Commission President sewn up for the next 5 years, the attention has turned to who will be what the press are calling the first ‘President of the European Union’.

Currently the presidency of the European Council rotates between member states every six months, but if Lisbon is ratified, a new two and a half year, once renewable, position of president of the European Council will open up. The jostling and speculation over the post began years ago when the idea was first discussed and since then apparent front runners, like Jean Claude Junker, Luxembourg’s Prime Minister, have fallen by the way side.

EU heads of government will choose the first president potentially as early as December providing the Irish vote “yes” to the Lisbon Treaty in October and the other pesky little issues like reigning in the renegade euro-sceptic and Lisbon-sceptic Czech President, Václcav Klaus, are sorted out in time.

So what are Tony Blair’s real chances of securing the plum role?

At home, Blair can even count David Cameron among his supporters, well sort of. Previously Cameron refused to talk about a Blair candidacy, as technically the Tories oppose the Lisbon Treaty which would create the post. However, significantly, last week Cameron announced that he would not oppose a Blair candidacy. Blair’s economic liberalism and Atlanticism make him an attractive candidate for some Tories, while others such as William Hague are disgusted. According to Hague: “we haven´t spent ten years opposing Tony Blair as Prime Minister of Britain to agree to him becoming President of the European Union”.

In the rest of the EU member states, Mr Blair’s chances are not as clear as many would think. Behind the scenes, it appears that Blair has been courting certain European leaders for some time and with certain success. Silvio Berlusconi, Italy’s PM has said that he is the “ideal candidate” and José Manuel Barroso is expected to favour a Blair presidency.

However, there are significant doubts that he will win the support of European socialist parties, but as socialist governments are few and far between these days that may not matter. Also, there are reports that President Sarkozy, previously a supporter of a Blair presidency, has swung away from Blair and towards the former Spanish Prime Minister, Felipe González.

Mr Blair will face a tough battle in convincing some EU leaders who would prefer a lower-key candidate who would not take attention away from the leaders of the largest EU states. However, those who favour Blair are drawn to his large persona, which could boost the EU’s standing on the world stage.

So, leaving aside all the hype, is it really plausible that other EU leaders will forgive Blair his European legacy of numerous opt-outs of European Union initiatives and the controversial Iraq War? Also, is Blair even authentically pro-European Union? If he were to be judged by his actions then the answer would probably be a resounding ‘no’. However, there is talk in European circles that Blair’s role as Middle East Envoy for the Quartet has gone some way in restoring his reputation.

Even if all the other cards fall into place, Blair will still have to contend with the effect the Iraq inquiry could have on his reputation. Blair has always insisted that the judgment on Iraq was based on the known facts at the time, but if it is proven, as a recently leaked memo suggests, that he discussed with Bush how they could invade Iraq even if there was no evidence of Weapons of Mass Destruction, that may change everything.

Finally and perhaps most importantly, the very fact that at the moment there are no real competitors on the horizon leads one to conclude that we may soon see a President Blair.